Financial Team

• FOMC: outlook unusually uncertain and risks to growth weighted to the downside

• Trade balance (Jun): deficit widens further

• Retail sales (Jul): moderate rebound due to higher car sales

• UMI consumer sentiment (Aug): down again, albeit only slightly

The advance GDP estimate for Q2 showed that nonfarm business gross value added increased by 2.6% qoq annualised. According to the labour market reports, aggregate hours worked are likely to have gone up by about the same rate, and thus we expect nonfarm productivity to have remained unchanged at best in Q2.

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